US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say. If you want more snow, look south
US Winter Is Likely to Be Warmer and Wetter
Bharatmorningnews.com – US winter is likely to be warmer and wetter across much of the country, according to seasonal forecasters tracking a strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific. While the outlook could bring helpful moisture to some drought-affected areas, it may disappoint people hoping for a consistently snowy winter in many northern cities.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer water in parts of the Pacific Ocean. It can alter storm tracks and influence temperatures across the United States, giving forecasters a clearer view of broad seasonal patterns without predicting the exact timing or strength of individual storms.
For much of the nation, increased precipitation combined with above-normal temperatures could mean more rain and less snow. Places that often sit near freezing during winter storms may be especially likely to see rain, sleet or mixed precipitation instead of accumulating snow.
“This is going to be a winter that’s really difficult for them to find what they’re looking for,” said James Belanger, vice president of meteorology for the Weather Company.
Snowfall May Be Better in Southern Mountain Areas
The Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies are expected to have lower-than-normal snowfall opportunities. Seasonal forecasts cannot provide precise totals, but warmer conditions increase the chance that storms in these regions will fall as rain rather than snow.
US winter is likely to offer stronger snow prospects in the Southern Rockies and parts of the Southwest and Southeast. Salt Lake City is among the major metropolitan areas where AccuWeather expects above-normal seasonal snowfall.
Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia could receive around half of their usual seasonal snow totals or less, according to AccuWeather. Denver may see 10 to 18 days with at least 2 inches of snow, compared with a historical average of nine such days, although its overall seasonal snowfall forecast remains near average.
Travelers seeking a snowy holiday setting may find better opportunities in the Southern Rockies than in some traditional northern destinations.
“Santa’s gonna find a barren landscape when he returns in late December,” Belanger said.
Most of the Lower 48 Could Have a Mild Winter
Parts or all of 41 states in the Lower 48 are expected to be warmer than normal. No state, or part of a state, is forecast to have better odds of a colder-than-average winter.
Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are expected to remain near normal overall. Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska have roughly equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-normal conditions.
US winter is likely to feel even milder because it follows a long-term warming trend. NOAA says US winters have warmed by about 4 degrees over the past 50 years, with human-caused climate change responsible for much of that increase.
A warmer seasonal average does not rule out hazardous winter weather. Communities can still experience severe snowstorms, sharp freezes and dangerous icy conditions during individual events.
“Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “So it doesn’t erase the risk.”
Polar Vortex Cold Spells and Major Storms Remain Possible
Forecasters expect fewer Arctic-air outbreaks linked to the polar vortex, but they remain possible. Jon Gottschalck, a National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief, said such cold spells should occur less often than in many winters.
One major storm can still reshape how a season is remembered, especially along the East Coast. AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok identified late January and February as periods to watch for significant eastern snowstorms.
“It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” Pastelok said.
US Winter Weather FAQ
Will a warmer winter mean no snow?
No. Even where US winter is likely to be warmer than average, snowstorms and freezing weather can still occur. Seasonal outlooks describe broad three-month trends, not the conditions on a particular day.
Where may snowfall be highest?
The Southern Rockies, along with parts of the Southwest and Southeast, may have better-than-normal snow opportunities. Conditions can vary sharply by elevation and by individual storm.
How should residents prepare?
Residents should continue to monitor local forecasts, maintain winter travel supplies and prepare for rapid changes in road conditions. A wetter, warmer seasonal outlook does not remove the risk from ice, heavy snow or a sudden cold outbreak.
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