India’s nuclear arsenal estimated at 190 warheads, including 30 for new missiles under production: Report
India’s Nuclear Arsenal Estimated at 190 Warheads
Bharatmorningnews.com – India’s nuclear arsenal estimated at up to 190 warheads includes around 30 weapons intended for new missile systems still under production, according to an assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). The estimate points to continuing modernisation across India’s air, land and sea-based nuclear delivery capabilities.
The assessment, titled India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026, was written by Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project. It draws on publicly available reporting, government-linked material and commercial satellite imagery because India does not disclose the exact size of its stockpile.
“Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads.”
Operational warheads and missiles under development
More than 160 of the estimated warheads are believed to be allocated to operational delivery systems. The remaining weapons are associated with missiles that are being developed or produced, meaning the figure should be treated as an independent assessment rather than an official count.
India has continued to upgrade its deterrent in recent years, with some systems entering service and others under development. New aircraft, land-based missiles and naval platforms are expected to complement or replace older nuclear-capable systems over time.
The size of a nuclear force is not determined by fissile material alone. It also depends on the number and readiness of systems available to carry the weapons. The report noted that it would be unlikely for India to produce a substantially larger arsenal than its delivery forces could deploy.
Plutonium estimates and uncertainty
The FAS said India may have produced enough military plutonium for between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads. India’s nuclear arsenal estimated at 190 assembled weapons falls within that broader range, though the available evidence cannot establish a definitive total.
At the start of 2026, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated India’s weapon-grade plutonium inventory at about 730 kilograms, with a possible variation of roughly 170 kilograms either way. Based on a notional requirement of around four kilograms per warhead, that material could theoretically support 140 to 225 weapons.
“We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190. With more weapon systems in development, the country’s warhead stockpile will likely increase further.”
These calculations have limits. The plutonium needed for a weapon can vary by design, and not all material would necessarily be turned into completed warheads. Some may be retained as a reserve, while details of India’s programme remain unavailable to the public.
Deterrence doctrine remains central
India adopted its no-first-use policy after the 1998 Pokhran-II tests and continues to describe credible minimum deterrence as a core element of its nuclear posture. Under this approach, nuclear weapons are intended to deter an attack rather than initiate a conflict.
The government has reiterated this position in Parliament. Credible minimum deterrence does not set a public target for the number of weapons; instead, it refers to maintaining forces regarded as sufficient for deterrence without an open-ended build-up.
India’s nuclear arsenal estimated in the report also reflects the importance of delivery systems. Aircraft, land-based missiles and sea-based platforms offer different options for maintaining a retaliatory capability, with naval forces potentially making that capability harder to locate.
FAQ: India’s Nuclear Arsenal Estimate
Is 190 an official Indian government figure?
No. The estimate comes from the Federation of American Scientists, not the Indian government. India does not publicly confirm the precise number of nuclear warheads it possesses.
Why are some warheads linked to new missiles?
About 30 warheads in the assessment are associated with missile systems under production or development. This reflects the broader effort to modernise delivery platforms alongside the existing operational force.
What does no-first-use mean for India?
India’s stated policy is that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Its doctrine presents nuclear forces as a deterrent designed to prevent a nuclear attack and preserve the ability to respond if one occurs.