Monsoon withdrawal to commence from Sept 19; rain deficit stays at 15%: IMD
Southwest Monsoon Set to Begin Retreat From West Rajasthan Around September 19
Bharatmorningnews.com – The southwest monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19, as India continues to record an overall seasonal rainfall shortfall of 15%. Weather conditions ahead of the expected retreat, however, are still expected to bring rain to several regions during the coming days.
The anticipated start date is slightly later than the normal monsoon withdrawal date of September 17. In comparison, the retreat began on September 14 last year. The India Meteorological Department has linked the season’s uneven rainfall pattern to a strengthening El Nino, which has affected precipitation across parts of western, southern and northeastern India.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD said in its statement.
Rainfall deficit remains uneven across regions
India’s monsoon deficit had reached 40% in June before widespread rainfall during July narrowed the gap to 13% by the end of that month. The shortfall stood at 14% at the end of August and was measured at 15% as of September 13.
The southern peninsula has recorded the largest regional deficit, at 28%, followed by east and northeast India at 25%. Central India has a 6% shortfall, while northwest India is 10% below normal seasonal rainfall.
Several agricultural states remain among the areas facing notable deficits, with little prospect of fully recovering the missed rainfall before the season ends. Punjab has recorded a 40% deficit, Haryana 23%, Rajasthan 25% and Bihar 35%. Karnataka stands at 29% below normal, Kerala at 27%, Telangana at 20%, Andhra Pradesh at 43% and Tamil Nadu at 26%.
In the northeast, Arunachal Pradesh has a rainfall shortfall of 42%, while Meghalaya has the largest deficit among the listed states at 59%. The figures underline how a national monsoon total can mask substantial differences between regions, especially where farming, reservoirs and local water supplies depend heavily on seasonal rain.
Rain activity expected before withdrawal begins
Even as the monsoon prepares to retreat from Rajasthan, multiple weather systems are expected to support rainfall across parts of the country. A low-pressure area is present over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat. A trough extends across Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, while an upper-air cyclonic circulation is positioned over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal.
These systems are likely to bring a burst of rain activity, particularly over western and northwestern India, as well as parts of the southern peninsula.
Fairly widespread rain is forecast over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad between September 15 and 17. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi are expected to receive rain on September 16 and 17. West and east Rajasthan may see isolated showers from September 15 to 17, while isolated rainfall is expected in Uttar Pradesh through September 18.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet, said the weather pattern appears suitable for the seasonal retreat to begin near the end of the week.
“We expect it to happen by September 20. Some decent rain is likely in the region before that,” he said.
Southern, central and eastern regions may receive more showers
Southern India is likely to see pockets of heavier rainfall. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal may receive isolated heavy spells until September. Kerala and Mahe are expected to see such activity through September 16, while south Karnataka may receive heavy rain on September 15.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could experience isolated heavy rainfall from September 18 to 20. These spells may provide short-term relief in areas that have remained below normal for much of the season, although the broader seasonal deficit is not expected to disappear in many affected districts.
Central India is forecast to receive isolated showers over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha through September 20. In the east, fairly widespread rain is expected over West Bengal and Sikkim until September 20. Bihar may receive rain on September 16 and 17, while Odisha could see activity from September 19 to 20.
Seasonal forecasts had signalled a weaker monsoon
Forecasts issued earlier in the season had already pointed to the possibility of below-normal rainfall. In its August 31 outlook for September, IMD projected rainfall below 91% of the long-period average.
Skymet Weather revised its southwest monsoon forecast on August 17, estimating that seasonal rainfall could reach 85% of the long-period average and assigning a 70% probability to drought conditions. Its initial April assessment had projected rainfall at 94% of the long-period average.
IMD’s April forecast had placed the season at 92% of the long-period average. Its June update reduced that estimate to 90% and indicated a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon season.
With withdrawal expected to begin shortly, the remaining rainfall episodes will be closely watched in deficit-hit areas. While late-season showers can improve immediate conditions in some locations, they may not be enough to erase the accumulated shortfall across many parts of the country.
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