Why is Bitcoin still rising as long-term holders sell and big wallets add 113,950 BTC?
Why Is Bitcoin Still Rising Despite Long-Term Holder Selling?
Bharatmorningnews.com – Why is Bitcoin still rising even as some long-term holders take profits? Bitcoin traded near $84,100 on September 26, up 4.6% over the previous month, while selling pressure remained below the levels seen around earlier market peaks. Demand from larger wallet groups and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds appears to have helped absorb part of that supply.
Long-term investors are still selling portions of their holdings, but their average gains are far smaller than they were at previous highs. That distinction may help explain why profit-taking has not yet created the kind of pressure that can quickly weaken a rally.
Profit-Taking Is Lower Than at Earlier Bitcoin Peaks
CryptoQuant data showed that the average gain for long-term Bitcoin holders was about 72% in September 2026. By comparison, the equivalent figure was close to 350% in December 2024. Investors with larger unrealized gains may have a stronger reason to sell, while more modest returns can reduce the urgency to lock in profits.
Long-term holders, defined in the cited analysis as investors who have held Bitcoin for at least five months, often own coins acquired earlier in the market cycle. Their selling can move Bitcoin toward newer buyers, but recent data indicates that their contribution to realized profits has eased.
Glassnode’s sell-side risk ratio, which compares realized profits and losses with the overall value of the Bitcoin supply, was much lower in early September 2026 than at major highs in 2025. The ratio reached 35 basis points per day at the July 2025 high and 23 basis points per day at the October 2025 peak. In early September 2026, it had fallen to 7 basis points per day.
Long-term holders accounted for roughly 47% of realized profits in early September, down from 88% at the August peak. The decline suggests that they were playing a smaller role in the market’s realized gains than during periods of heavier distribution.
Large Wallet Balances Add Support
Another reason Bitcoin has held firm is the rise in balances among wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Santiment data showed that these wallets added a combined 113,950 BTC between July 15 and late September. Their holdings reached about 5.24 million BTC, an increase of approximately 2.2%.
These addresses may belong to wealthy investors, hedge funds, trading firms, exchanges or other market participants. Still, wallet-size data does not reveal who controls an address or why its balance has changed.
For that reason, the increase of 113,950 BTC should not automatically be viewed as direct open-market buying. Funds can move coins between wallets, exchanges can consolidate customer balances, and organizations can reorganize custody arrangements. Such activity may change the size of a wallet group without representing entirely new demand.
On-chain data also cannot capture every trade. Transactions completed inside exchange order books may not result in visible transfers between blockchain addresses. The increase in larger wallet balances is therefore a useful sign of possible accumulation, but it does not prove that every added coin was newly purchased.
ETF Inflows Create Another Source of Demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs provided an additional buying channel while some holders reduced their exposure. These funds recorded about $999 million in inflows on September 21, giving investors a way to gain Bitcoin exposure through regulated market products.
ETF inflows do not guarantee further price gains, but they can help offset selling when demand remains strong. Why is Bitcoin still rising in this environment? The combination of lower long-term-holder selling, larger wallet balances and ETF-related demand may be helping buyers absorb available supply.
Bitcoin also remained resilient despite pressure from the bond market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5% on September 15, its highest level since 2007. Higher Treasury yields can compete with Bitcoin because government bonds offer interest income, while Bitcoin does not generate yield.
Even so, Bitcoin gained 3.3% during the week leading into September 26. That performance indicates that demand has, so far, been sufficient to counter the selling taking place among some established holders.
What the Data Does and Does Not Show
Why is Bitcoin still rising cannot be answered by one indicator alone. Wallet balances, ETF flows, realized-profit measures and Treasury yields each describe only part of the market. Together, they suggest that selling has been more manageable than at prior highs and that several sources of demand remain active.
However, Bitcoin remains volatile. Larger wallets can transfer coins rather than buy them, ETF flows can reverse, and long-term holders may sell more aggressively if prices continue to rise. On-chain metrics are best treated as market signals rather than guarantees of future performance.
Bitcoin’s recent strength appears to reflect a balance between limited profit-taking and continued demand, not the absence of risk.
Bitcoin Market FAQ for U.S. Investors
Why are long-term holders important for Bitcoin’s price?
They often hold large amounts of Bitcoin purchased earlier in the cycle. When they sell heavily, more supply enters the market. When their selling is limited, new demand may have an easier time supporting prices.
Do larger Bitcoin wallets always mean institutional buying?
No. A wallet holding 100 to 1,000 BTC may belong to an institution, an exchange, a trading firm or a wealthy individual. Balance changes can also result from internal transfers or wallet consolidation.
How do spot Bitcoin ETFs affect demand?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to seek Bitcoin exposure through fund shares. Inflows can add demand to the market, while outflows can reduce it. Fund flows should be considered alongside broader market conditions.
Should investors rely only on on-chain data?
No. On-chain information can provide useful context, but it cannot identify every buyer, seller or transaction motive. Price trends, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions and personal risk tolerance also matter when assessing Bitcoin.
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