Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone? El Nino might bring record slow storm season
Why the Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Started So Quietly
Bharatmorningnews.com – Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone? The basin has entered its usually busiest period with an unusually small number of storms. By Saturday, 2026 had reached a satellite-era record for the latest point in a season without a hurricane, which requires sustained winds of at least 74 mph.
Only five tropical storms had formed, and all were weak and short-lived. Overall Atlantic activity was at its lowest level for this stage of the season since 1950, with forecasts indicating that hostile conditions could continue for at least another week.
Some seasons before 1950 may also have gone this long without a hurricane, according to Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Nick Novella. However, those earlier records are less certain because observations over the ocean were much more limited before satellites.
El Niño Has Made the Atlantic Unfriendly for Storms
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist at Colorado State University, said cumulative storm activity had fallen to a post-1950 record low. This measurement accounts for how many storms form, how strong they become and how long they last. At this point in the season, activity was only 7% of its normal level.
The main reason is a strong El Niño, the periodic warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that can alter weather patterns worldwide. In the Atlantic, it has combined several unfavorable factors: powerful wind shear, dry air and sinking air associated with high pressure.
“It’s really staggering, just how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could form a tropical cyclone right now,” said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany atmospheric science professor.
Those conditions can prevent a tropical disturbance from organizing into a depression, tropical storm or hurricane. Dry air limits the thunderstorms storms need for fuel, while sinking air suppresses the upward motion that allows clouds and circulation to build.
Strong Wind Shear Is Disrupting Developing Cyclones
Wind shear has been the most significant obstacle. It occurs when winds change direction or speed at different heights in the atmosphere. A developing cyclone needs its thunderstorms to remain aligned above its low-level circulation; strong shear tilts and breaks apart that structure.
Across the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean, a region that often produces westward-moving storms, wind shear was about 45 mph stronger than a tropical cyclone can tolerate, Corbosiero said.
“Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance,” said University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy.
Where have all the Atlantic storms gone is also a question of moisture and timing. African dust and dry air crossing the ocean have reduced available humidity, while fewer weather disturbances have offered fewer starting points for tropical development.
Record-Warm Water Cannot Overcome Every Barrier
The lack of hurricanes has occurred despite exceptionally warm ocean water. The world’s oceans had experienced record heat for 100 days, which would normally provide substantial energy for tropical cyclones. This season shows that high sea-surface temperatures alone cannot guarantee storm formation.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel noted that the temperature difference between the ocean and atmosphere is crucial. Hurricanes draw energy from heat moving from the sea into the air. When the atmosphere warms faster than the ocean surface, that difference can narrow and make conditions less favorable for storms.
Atlantic waters have warmed, but the air above them has warmed even faster as part of the El Niño pattern. That atmospheric imbalance has helped restrain development despite the hot ocean.
FAQ: What Does the Quiet Atlantic Season Mean for U.S. Residents?
Does a slow start mean the United States is safe from hurricanes?
No. A quiet start does not eliminate the possibility of a dangerous hurricane later in the season. Coastal residents should continue following official forecasts and maintain their hurricane preparedness plans.
Why are warm Atlantic waters not producing more hurricanes?
Warm water supports storms, but storms also need moist air, rising motion and relatively light wind shear. This season, strong upper-level winds, dry air and sinking air have outweighed the benefit of unusually warm water.
Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone during El Niño?
El Niño can create atmospheric conditions that disrupt storms before they strengthen. It does not stop every hurricane season, but it can make the Atlantic far less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.