FIFA World Cup: Bosnia, Arsenal and set-piece reliance at World Cups
FIFA World Cup: Set-Piece Dominance and Tactical Shifts
FIFA World Cup - In Toronto, Canada's draw against Bosnia & Herzegovina highlighted a sequence of disordered confrontations. One side maintained greater control of the ball, yet only managed to score in the final moments of the match.
Similar to Czechia's 1-2 loss to South Korea the prior day, this encounter emphasized a stylistic clash. One team sought to exploit space through attacking play, while the other focused on aerial threats via set-pieces.
Club Football's Tactical Evolution
The tactical discourse in club soccer this season has revolved around set-pieces. This is evident in Arsenal's success, which included a Premier League title and a Champions League semifinal berth. Across 38 league matches, the Gunners generated 66.13 Expected Goals (xG), with 55% of those opportunities stemming from open play. The same pattern persisted in their 15 Champions League games, where 57% of their 28.48 xG came from attacking actions.
Set-Piece Dynamics in the Match
Canada's 61% possession translated to 1.23 xG, while Bosnia managed 0.96 xG from their 39% share. Cyle Larin, who replaced an attacker in the 76th minute, accounted for nearly 17% of Canada's xG alone. Yet the scoreline masked a stark contrast in how each team approached scoring chances.
At first glance, the match didn’t mirror the 2022 Champions League final, where PSG's 1.72 xG from 75% possession outclassed Arsenal's 0.51 xG in a grueling 120-minute contest. However, the statistical breakdown revealed a clear divergence. Canada’s xG was overwhelmingly based on open play (79%), whereas Bosnia’s relied heavily on set-pieces (98%).
Set-Piece Trends in World Cup History
Set-pieces have long been a critical element of World Cup play. In Russia 2018, 43% of the 169 goals came from these scenarios, but Qatar 2022 saw a notable decline. Less than a quarter of the 172 goals were from set plays, with only three such goals recorded so far in this tournament.
Despite the expanded 48-team format, the data suggests a continuation of prior trends. Teams like Czechia and Bosnia have already demonstrated a preference for set-piece strategies, as seen in their 1-0 lead against South Korea. However, unlike Canada, South Korea showcased greater creativity in generating and converting chances.
During a media roundtable last month, FIFA’s Technical Study Group (TSG) addressed concerns about set-piece reliance. The group, composed of former players and data analysts, downplayed the likelihood of a repeat of Russia 2018’s set-piece surge.
"You don’t have much time to prepare a team for these tournaments. Of course, set-pieces can be a weapon and teams will use it, but not as the main one," noted TSG member Gilberto Silva, who won the 2002 World Cup with Brazil.